2021年6月29日星期二

了解拼多多

 拼多多是一間很神奇的公司,在它上市後不久搞「百億補貼」,加上以前的「天天領現金」,我就知道它是用錢來買流量拼MAU (monthly active users),好跟投資人拿錢。果然在开挂扩张一書中就提到拼多多用最實際的低價去吸引用戶,燒了錢,做好營收,做好用戶人數,好讓投資人賣帳,再給拼多多錢去補給中國人民。


如果不信的話,去拼拼多investor relations官網登記訂閲就知道了,訂閱後會收到一封電郵給你介紹拼多多,說它厲害的地方,說它怎麼懂得智能手機,用推送的方式去賣貨,說團購有多牛:
















然後就是給你幾條link深入了解:


For a deeper dive into what makes Pinduoduo tick, we recommend the following case studies:


一般大的中概股如阿里、京東、騰訊,投資者關係都會有中英文版,但拼多多只有英文版,原因嘛,就是國人不是它的target audience...


今天收到的電郵更加厲害,題目為"The ultimate guide to Pinduoduo",基本上你看完就可以成為一名進級的拼多多投資者:


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Case studies/Explainers/White papers


Pinduoduo and the rise of social e-commerce

"In our view, Pinduoduo’s rapid success in social commerce will be replicated by others globally, which will continue to drive commerce in social-driven categories online. And so, to understand the success of Pinduoduo is to understand the future of global e-commerce." -- Anu Hariharan, Nic Dardenne of Y Combinator


Pinduoduo and vertically integrated social commerce

"Like Amazon used books, PDD used fruit as a wedge to build what became one of the world’s largest ecommerce companies in five years." -- Turner Novak, Banana Capital


Pinduoduo: Driving e-commerce in rural China to improve farmers’ livelihoods

"A key part of Pinduoduo’s initial user acquisition was targeting the untapped rural market of nearly 600 million people in China. In giving back to society, it aimed to create meaningful impact on farmers’ livelihoods." -- Liang Hao, Cheah Sin Mei, Singapore Management University


Pinduoduo, Harvard Business School Case 620-040

"PDD pioneered a new approach to online shopping that allowed shoppers to share products, invite friends to form shopping teams, and purchase together at discounted prices." -- Feng Zhu, Krishna G. Palepu, Bonnie Yining Cao, Dawn H. Lau


Pinduoduo Q&A With Lilian Li of Chinese Characteristics

Lilian Li, author of the Chinese Characteristics newsletter on Substack, poses a barrage of questions to us about our strategy, operations and outlook.


Pinduoduo: Defining interactive e-commerce

A white paper put together by Matthew Brennan for China Channel, defining interactive e-commerce, the new model of mobile-first e-commerce pioneered by Pinduoduo where "social" is but one element.


Pinduoduo: Revolutionizing online shopping

The success of Pinduoduo has relied on its unique business model, a combination of group buying and social shopping.


Secret behind Pinduoduo’s growth: Zero to 824 million users in 6 years

Hear it from Chen Lei, Pinduoduo Chairman and CEO, on what he thinks the secret sauce is and the way forward for the company.


Consumer-to-manufacturer revolution offers glimpse into retail’s future

We describe the thinking behind the pioneering C2M model that is remaking manufacturing and retail.


Digitization will unlock economic potential of China’s vast agricultural resources

We lay out the case for digitization of the agricultural supply chain and the benefits that technology can bring not just to the producers but also the consumers through productivity and yield gains, and lower costs through less waste and loss.


Explainer: The difference between Pinduoduo’s Duo Duo Grocery and community group buying

Duo Duo Grocery is often mistakenly referred to as a "community group buy", but there are crucial differences.


Explainer: How Pinduoduo’s team purchase model differs from group-buying sites

Pinduoduo is often mistakenly compared to Groupon but again, there are fundamental differences in how we operate.


Podcasts:


The complete history and strategy of Pinduoduo (Acquired)

"This story is chock-full of lessons that apply not only to China tech, but to high-growth company building and investing everywhere." (1:51:45)


Pinduoduo: Rise of social commerce (Colossus)

Interview podcast with Xi Yi Lim, Pinduoduo senior director for corporate development, on what makes Pinduoduo attractive to buyers, its network dynamics, and how the team purchase concept creates scaled demand. (56:09)


Pinduoduo on social commerce and agriculture (Analyse Asia)

Interview podcast with Xi Yi Lim on Pinduoduo and its impact on agriculture. (51:14)


Pinduoduo also hosts two podcasts - The China Ecommerce Podcast and the Agri Matters podcast, where we interview the movers and shakers in the fields of commerce and agriculture. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts.


Videos


Our YouTube channel is a rich resource to understand Pinduoduo. It’s where we upload our explainer videos as well as some long-form documentary-style videos that look at how e-commerce is changing China’s producers, manufacturers, and consumers. Don’t miss out! Subscribe to our channel today!



What is Pinduoduo? (Official app explainer)

A two-minute app explainer on how Pinduoduo works


How to get set up on Pinduoduo as foreign merchants (Official explainer)

Everything you need to know to get set up on Pinduoduo


How Duo Duo Orchard works by Pinduoduo

Whiteboard animated explainer on gamified corporate social responsibility


How much do onions really cost?

A look at how Pinduoduo is able to lower the price of onions and aggregate demand for farmers by bypassing layers of middle men


Cizzle: A consumer-to-manufacturer (C2M) case study

How Pinduoduo helped Cizzle tailor its products to suit Chinese needs, enabling it to make inroads into the vast China market and diversify its business from purely contract manufacturing for foreign brands.


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留意,它還有播客訂閱,同樣都是說英文的。很明顯,拼多多跟瑞幸同樣是「美利堅韮菜收割機」,而且拼多多更是黃金豪華版...


話說回來,雖然它心態不太好,但淘寶、天貓和京東的流量貴,確實給了拼多多的推送模式電商一個很大的生存空間,用低價做爆款確實非常屈機,所以段永平和李录這些牛人都有持股。黄峥雖然離開了拼多多,但其實是在農業種植方面看看怎樣彎道輔助拼多多,所以這間狡猾公司的前景不容怱視。


拼多多盈利低,不過跟Amazon的套路,operating cash flow很足:


















估值方面可以用P/GP (Gross profit)來看,2020年Gross profit $6.1 billion, 在2021年也繼續急速增長,番一倍是大概率事件:











































假設2021年gross profit有$12.1 billion USD, 每股$9.7, $120股價對應是P/GP = 12.4, 不算太貴。我持有拼多多,主要是對沖重倉的阿里,對拼多多本身還是觀望態度。


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