2021年6月29日星期二

了解拼多多

拼多多是一間很神奇的公司，在它上市後不久搞「百億補貼」，加上以前的「天天領現金」，我就知道它是用錢來買流量拼MAU (monthly active users)，好跟投資人拿錢。果然在开挂扩张一書中就提到拼多多用最實際的低價去吸引用戶，燒了錢，做好營收，做好用戶人數，好讓投資人賣帳，再給拼多多錢去補給中國人民。

如果不信的話，去拼拼多investor relations官網登記訂閲就知道了，訂閱後會收到一封電郵給你介紹拼多多，說它厲害的地方，說它怎麼懂得智能手機，用推送的方式去賣貨，說團購有多牛：

然後就是給你幾條link深入了解:

For a deeper dive into what makes Pinduoduo tick, we recommend the following case studies:

Pinduoduo and the rise of social e-commerce (Anu Hariharan and Nic Dardenne/ Y Combinator)
Pinduoduo and vertically integrated social commerce (Turner Novak/Gelt Venture Capital)
Defining interactive e-commerce (Matthew Brennan/China Channel)

一般大的中概股如阿里、京東、騰訊，投資者關係都會有中英文版，但拼多多只有英文版，原因嘛，就是國人不是它的target audience...

今天收到的電郵更加厲害，題目為"The ultimate guide to Pinduoduo"，基本上你看完就可以成為一名進級的拼多多投資者：

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Case studies/Explainers/White papers

Pinduoduo and the rise of social e-commerce

"In our view, Pinduoduo’s rapid success in social commerce will be replicated by others globally, which will continue to drive commerce in social-driven categories online. And so, to understand the success of Pinduoduo is to understand the future of global e-commerce." -- Anu Hariharan, Nic Dardenne of Y Combinator

Pinduoduo and vertically integrated social commerce

"Like Amazon used books, PDD used fruit as a wedge to build what became one of the world’s largest ecommerce companies in five years." -- Turner Novak, Banana Capital

Pinduoduo: Driving e-commerce in rural China to improve farmers’ livelihoods

"A key part of Pinduoduo’s initial user acquisition was targeting the untapped rural market of nearly 600 million people in China. In giving back to society, it aimed to create meaningful impact on farmers’ livelihoods." -- Liang Hao, Cheah Sin Mei, Singapore Management University

Pinduoduo, Harvard Business School Case 620-040

"PDD pioneered a new approach to online shopping that allowed shoppers to share products, invite friends to form shopping teams, and purchase together at discounted prices." -- Feng Zhu, Krishna G. Palepu, Bonnie Yining Cao, Dawn H. Lau

Pinduoduo Q&A With Lilian Li of Chinese Characteristics

Lilian Li, author of the Chinese Characteristics newsletter on Substack, poses a barrage of questions to us about our strategy, operations and outlook.

Pinduoduo: Defining interactive e-commerce

A white paper put together by Matthew Brennan for China Channel, defining interactive e-commerce, the new model of mobile-first e-commerce pioneered by Pinduoduo where "social" is but one element.

Pinduoduo: Revolutionizing online shopping

The success of Pinduoduo has relied on its unique business model, a combination of group buying and social shopping.

Secret behind Pinduoduo’s growth: Zero to 824 million users in 6 years

Hear it from Chen Lei, Pinduoduo Chairman and CEO, on what he thinks the secret sauce is and the way forward for the company.

Consumer-to-manufacturer revolution offers glimpse into retail’s future

We describe the thinking behind the pioneering C2M model that is remaking manufacturing and retail.

Digitization will unlock economic potential of China’s vast agricultural resources

We lay out the case for digitization of the agricultural supply chain and the benefits that technology can bring not just to the producers but also the consumers through productivity and yield gains, and lower costs through less waste and loss.

Explainer: The difference between Pinduoduo’s Duo Duo Grocery and community group buying

Duo Duo Grocery is often mistakenly referred to as a "community group buy", but there are crucial differences.

Explainer: How Pinduoduo’s team purchase model differs from group-buying sites

Pinduoduo is often mistakenly compared to Groupon but again, there are fundamental differences in how we operate.

Podcasts:

The complete history and strategy of Pinduoduo (Acquired)

"This story is chock-full of lessons that apply not only to China tech, but to high-growth company building and investing everywhere." (1:51:45)

Pinduoduo: Rise of social commerce (Colossus)

Interview podcast with Xi Yi Lim, Pinduoduo senior director for corporate development, on what makes Pinduoduo attractive to buyers, its network dynamics, and how the team purchase concept creates scaled demand. (56:09)

Pinduoduo on social commerce and agriculture (Analyse Asia)

Interview podcast with Xi Yi Lim on Pinduoduo and its impact on agriculture. (51:14)

Pinduoduo also hosts two podcasts - The China Ecommerce Podcast and the Agri Matters podcast, where we interview the movers and shakers in the fields of commerce and agriculture. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts.

Videos

Our YouTube channel is a rich resource to understand Pinduoduo. It’s where we upload our explainer videos as well as some long-form documentary-style videos that look at how e-commerce is changing China’s producers, manufacturers, and consumers. Don’t miss out! Subscribe to our channel today!

What is Pinduoduo? (Official app explainer)

A two-minute app explainer on how Pinduoduo works

How to get set up on Pinduoduo as foreign merchants (Official explainer)

Everything you need to know to get set up on Pinduoduo

How Duo Duo Orchard works by Pinduoduo

Whiteboard animated explainer on gamified corporate social responsibility

How much do onions really cost?

A look at how Pinduoduo is able to lower the price of onions and aggregate demand for farmers by bypassing layers of middle men

Cizzle: A consumer-to-manufacturer (C2M) case study

How Pinduoduo helped Cizzle tailor its products to suit Chinese needs, enabling it to make inroads into the vast China market and diversify its business from purely contract manufacturing for foreign brands.

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留意，它還有播客訂閱，同樣都是說英文的。很明顯，拼多多跟瑞幸同樣是「美利堅韮菜收割機」，而且拼多多更是黃金豪華版...

話說回來，雖然它心態不太好，但淘寶、天貓和京東的流量貴，確實給了拼多多的推送模式電商一個很大的生存空間，用低價做爆款確實非常屈機，所以段永平和李录這些牛人都有持股。黄峥雖然離開了拼多多，但其實是在農業種植方面看看怎樣彎道輔助拼多多，所以這間狡猾公司的前景不容怱視。

拼多多盈利低，不過跟Amazon的套路，operating cash flow很足:

估值方面可以用P/GP (Gross profit)來看，2020年Gross profit $6.1 billion, 在2021年也繼續急速增長，番一倍是大概率事件:

假設2021年gross profit有$12.1 billion USD, 每股$9.7, $120股價對應是P/GP = 12.4，不算太貴。我持有拼多多，主要是對沖重倉的阿里，對拼多多本身還是觀望態度。

2021年6月24日星期四

家人投資組合 (1)

月頭用美金$10,000開了個戶口準備家人以後的開支，打算每年入幾千，有入無出，只買不賣，放個十幾二十年，佛系投資。暫時計劃每次入錢買股票的話都會買SPY和MCHI，即所謂的"anchor stocks"，再分配少少去其他心水股。另外，一年會有一次入錢投機crypto。

Portfolio

Transactions

個股短評

以下股票代號後加號代表在上一次更新以後加了倉。因為這是開倉post，全部有加號。

SPY (+)

巴菲特建議大部份人都應該買S&P 500 Index fund, 它遺產有90%也會這樣處理，所以我跟。計劃每次入錢也會買少少。

MCHI (+)

中國科技股ETF, 重倉Tencent和Alibaba，合我心意。計劃每次入錢也會買少少。

FB (+)

全球MAU 2.8 billion以上，最大social network，總有人用Facebook/Whatsapp/Instagram, P/E 大概30，revenue年增長20%以上沒有難度，不貴。公司有大量option values, e.g. VR, cryptocurrency, e-commerce (Shop), etc. Bytedance的Tiktok是潛在危機。

BRK.B (+)

偶像巴菲特公司，只要不太貴的話都會入貨支持一下。現在大概P/B 1.4，可以接受。

AMZN (+)

中國以外e-commerce最大；物流一流；雲計算第一；Prime會員超值；智能設備雖然不齊全，但全部都是爆款；最大的ebook market兼有最暢銷的ebook reader: Kindle; Ads的生意急速增長。在網上醫藥市場有潛力。基本上，在所有技術含量不高而和提升生活有關的領域都有潛力，誰的profit margin高它就挑戰誰，屈機的公司。缺點是現價偏貴, P/OCF = 27, P/FCF = 68，年增長15-20%。

OPK (+)

開戶送的，我不知它幹甚麼。

2021年6月15日星期二

投機crypto

在第一季裡嘗試過買入虛擬貨幣(cryptocurrency)，但心理承受不到，賺不了大錢。

從五月初，我找到一個適合自己的方法去參與，就是視cryptocurrency為投機，然後開始用部份期權金來投入。視為投機，就不會心痛total loss，如買彩票一樣。期權金有少少free money的味道，而且金額一定少，適合做投機。用期權金的另一好處是不用一筆過，可以慢慢買入去儲，不用介意價格。

因為投入的資金來源是期權金，比較高頻但金額少，在同一戶口買GBTC和ETHE來參與crypto比較方便，所以我沒有用coinbase等交易所，更加沒有用cold wallets。GBTC和ETHE的每年管理費用是2-2.5%，頗高，但現價對NAV有discount 4-15%，在未來半年至一年美國SEC應該會批准變成正式ETF，到時管理費有希望減到0.5%，discount也會縮，所以勉強可以接受。加上IB今年會推出crypto trading，到時我就直接用IB同一戶口買crypto不用經ETF。

至於為何我會想投機虛擬貨幣(暫時就是bitcoin和ethereum)？主要原因是：

跟以前的貝殻，或者現在的黃金一樣，只要有足夠人信，一樣物品就會變成"store of value"。黃金有工業用途和durable，crypto有去中心化、易儲存、可以做smart contracts的好處，不相伯仲，不過說到底，都是一個信字。
Bitcoin已經超過了critical mass去認同這項資產是可以store of value。無論你信不信，美國有最少17%的成人信了，還有一堆人會去想認識，然後變成信徒。Tesla的Elon Musk，Square/Twitter的Jack Dorsey對它有背書，一些企業如Microstrategy、Square和美圖配置了bitcoin做資產，一些hedge funds配置了bitcoin和其他crypto，一些私銀開始為客人配置crypto，El Salvador這個國家甚至認可bitcoin做法定貨幣，還有其他國家已經在醖釀。全球有超過十萬個blockchain engineers去fix cryptocurrency的各種技術問題，有上千間exchanges給大眾交易，bitcoin交易每日400萬次。正如Michael Saylor說, "Will it go to zero? Will Christianity go to zero?"，bitcoin的left tail risk(變0的機會)已經從上一年開始大幅減低。
Bitcoin和ethereum的增發風險很低，strong hold的信徙多，主要是因為no alternatives，價格不斷走上的機率高。
會隨着各國大印銀紙引發的通脹而引入更多信徙，價格也更易向上。
作為新穎的資產，crypto價格大幅向上的機會比黃金高很多。

雖然我信bitcoin和ethereum，但始終只敢對它們作投機，只用小部份資金，不作投資，理由是我沒有辦法去估計它們值多少錢。它們不見得會取代黃金，㑹受到多少全球資金去配置是未知之數。再者，今天有bitcoin、ethereum，明天還可以有其他，雖然bitcoin/ethereum本身沒有增發風險，但競爭者會分薄配置cryptocurrency的資金，令「估值」困難。

想補充一點，bitcoin和黃金作為"store of value"有一個微妙的分別是，當黃金的擁有者越來越集中時，大家還是會想去擁有它，去買它來保值。但當bitcoin的擁有者越來越集中，是會有很大的機會觸發大家去找代替品，尤其當擁有者是一個大家都討厭的人的時候。畢竟，"fork"的成本太低。

一分理智，九分FOMO是我現在對crypto的態度，所以在配置上，只敢用零錢去投機，不會把crypto的部份計入組合價值，贏了開心，輸了不心痛，至少參與過。

2021年6月6日星期日

Virtu Financial一間賺股市波動錢的公司

在"貓奴" 的生活札記看到的一間公司，節目Sun Channel嘉賓Calvin推介，我研究一下發現不錯。

Virtu financial, 一間market maker，即是股票市場很多人說的"庄家"。主要(80% revenue)是靠day trade賺bid/ask的spread，市場波動越大，它越賺錢，而市場通常是在恐慌時波動大，所以它營利和股價跟大市有negative correlation。這一點其實非常好，不用理甚麼supply chain，客戶口味等等。另一部份(20% revenue)是execution service，以我的理解是在它不做market maker的市場上面，幫大戶出貨(如果在它做market maker的市場上做，就是conflict of interest了...)。

護城河很小，只有靠一些政府regulations製造出來的oligopoly market (VIRT是NYSE三間准許的market maker之一，其餘兩間是Citadel和GTS)。做day trade風險大，可能因為一兩個失誤爆倉，所以買VIRT就要對團隊有信心，很難靠財報看成敗。Virtu的track record算是不錯的，在2014年的ipo時說五年1278 days中只有一天輸錢，輸了七位數。當年公司每日賺錢平均一百萬左右，現在是七百萬到一千萬左右。當年沒有execution service這部份，現在有了可以減輕公司的風險，這部份每日賺一兩百萬。