新的證券部署分類

最近開始整理了一下自己持有證券的分類，一來是為將來的財自作好準備，二來是讓自己在買賣前想清楚：是不是真的要把一支真正成長股賣掉？要不要買入一支股票來賺股息應付日常生活？會不會太多做短期交易的股票？應該把新的資金買真正成長股還是做短期交易？因此，由之前只分growth同value變成以下的分類，方便做決定：

真正成長股

有護城河，可以不斷自我投入增長的真正成長股。 我深信長期持有這些股票，可以跑贏大市。 因為它們的股值主是視乎高增長可以維持多久，而我對這個多久只是一個信念， 沒有確切答案，加上這些公司難能可貴，所以我傾向對它們長期持有，不會因一時覺得高估而賣。

維持生活股

用來賺股息以應付日常生活的股票，換句話説，它們是財自的底氣。其實一些債券也可以視為是用來賺取利息來維持生活，但因為它們會到期贖回，我不能一直靠某一只債券，所以把它們放到“交易證券”一類。對於維持生活股，我傾向長期持有，但如果它們明顯高估或有更好的換碼對象，我也會賣出。

交易證券

通常是一些嚴重低估的股票、債券、優先股。買入時有明確目標在接近合理價或高估時賣出。我不善長短期交易， 所以買入這些證券時會有心理準備要持有1-3年。我會對這些證劵有比較頻繁的交易。

以下是到目前為止的分類，由上季到現在的交易和個股分析會像以往一樣留在季尾後的總結：

為何阿里爸爸是我重倉的真正成長股?

在眾多真正成長股中，我的首選重倉是阿里爸爸(BABA)。在美國，市值最高的成長股之一是Amazon，而我把它的業務和阿里比較，認為差不多各方面阿里都比它優勝或差不多：

Amazon業務	Alibaba業務	比較
E-commerce (Amazon.com, etc.) ($339 billion GMV)	Taobao + Tmall ($997 billion GMV) 1688, 阿里媽媽、飛豬、考拉、AliExpress	阿里規模較大，不過阿里的競爭對手較強，有京東、拼多多。
AWS (revenue: $43+ billion)	Ali Cloud (revenue: $7+ billion)	阿里雲規模較小，但國內沒有強的對手
Amazon Video	Youku, Todou	優酷和土豆比Amazon Video規模大很多
Fire OS	AliOS	都是只有自家硬件用
N/A	高德地圖
N/A	Payment: 三分一的螞蟻(包含Paytm)
Whole Foods, Amazon Go, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Books, etc.	銀泰、高鑫(大潤發)、盒馬, etc.	阿里實體零售佈局比Amazon早很多，規模也大得多
N/A	共享經濟: 餓了麼，口碑
Amazon logistics	物流：菜鳥，中通、圆通、申通、百世（更名前为百世汇通）、韵达
	大約 $45+ billion的其他投資: 滴滴打車、小鵬汽車、Lazada、阿里健康、蘇寧、聯華、新浪微博、眾安保險、Zulily等等
2019: revenue $280.5 billion, operating income: $14.5 billion	2019: revenue: $77 billion, operating income: $14 billion	Revenue很難比，但盈利能力差不多，增速方面Amazon AWS已經盈利，所以盈利增速很快，阿里雲也快盈利，加上其他業務增速快，未來阿里盈收和盈利增速相信會比Amazon快

與所有美國大頭比較，阿里的市值出奇地低:

AMZN	GOOG	FB	MSFT	AAPL	NFLX	BABA	Tencent	JD	PDD
1.57T	1.2T	788B	1.64T	2T	213B	718B	741B	140B	181B

在阿里投資日，CFO Maggie Wu (武卫)以下的一段話描述了阿里是如何被市場低估：

Okay. Finally, let's take a look at valuation. Since we report our financials in 4 segment, let's take a look at each segment one by one. First, let's dig deeper into our core commerce businesses. We have so many businesses within this core commerce. In the last 12 months, our marketplace-based platform generated USD 29 billion of adjusted EBITDA. So the marketplace-based business is our core, providing profitability and cash flow.

We also list out our peer groups and companies multiples and valuation method. Let's pick the lowest multiples used on peers. If we apply 25x multiple on this adjusted EBITDA, then the equity value of our China retail core, core business alone would be USD 725 billion, which approaches the current BABA market cap. Please note that this valuation is before we assign any value to our promising new businesses within this core commerce segment, such as Freshippo, local services, Lazada, Tmall Global, Cainiao logistics.

So if you look at these new businesses, each of them occupied a leading position in their sector. Freshippo is the leading FMCG retailer in China. It is more efficient and grows faster than traditional FMCG retailers with much higher efficiency measured by sales per square meter per annum. And the same-store sales growth has multiple times than the other off-line businesses.

Cainiao is the leading digital logistics service provider. They're handling package volume at almost 2x of the total U.S. country's volumes. It also has the largest last mile delivery network and the largest crowdsourcing package delivery platform in China.

Tmall Global is the #1 in cross-border e-commerce market, and it is the biggest import platform in whole China, including online/off-line. And they're still growing at more than 40% year-on-year in GMV. Lazada is positioned well in Southeast Asia e-commerce market with more than 80 million AACs and more than 100 million MAUs. And at the same time, it doubled its order from prior year. So it has continued showing strong growth in the past few quarters.

So the point I want to make here is that the market is reflecting only the value of our core, core commerce businesses and not yet give any credit to any of our other businesses within the core. So if you want to get a sense of the valuation of new businesses with this core commerce segment, at the bottom of the slide, we have laid out some of these peer companies with market valuations and map to these new businesses.

Now coming back to a full view of all of the business segments, let's look at cloud computing. Based on the last quarter revenue of USD 1.7 billion, this business is growing nearly 60% year-on-year and running at an annual revenue run rate of USD 7 billion, assuming no growth at all in the subsequent quarters.

What is our cloud computing business worth? It seems that the market has not assigned -- basically assigned a very little value to our cloud business. Next, the market is also assigning very little value to our stake in Ant Group. Well, since many of you want to invest in Ant and you're looking for allocation, you know the valuation, and the market will soon tell the valuation.

Now take a look at our cash and strategic investments. As of June 30, we had USD 36 billion in net cash and USD 45 billion in strategic investment. These are measured by the fair market value. So without Ant, based on these publicly traded values, you've seen USD 45 billion in this investee portfolios.

To summarize, a sum of the part approach to value our company suggests that the market is not assigning much value to many parts of our business. From the new businesses in the core to cloud computing, to our stake in Ant Group, to our value in the investee companies, we believe that these businesses will produce strong growth drivers for our tomorrow's growth.

嫌文字太多的可以看圖：

簡單來說，單看核心電商業務已經值$725 Billion，這裡不包括盒馬、菜鳥、餓了麼、口碑等等。加上1/3的螞蟻、$45 billion的其他投資、阿里雲、高德、優酷土豆，個人認為市值$1 trillion以下的阿里可以隨便買。