香港的繁華，中國功不可沒

我明白在香港土生土長的人有多麼討厭大陸政府和大陸人，主要是因為香港在教育和文化上走得較前。但無可否認，香港有如今的繁華，固然因為英國政府給香港造了一條船，但最主要的還是中國這個承載着香港向前的大海。沒有背靠着中國大陸，香港在國際上能有多少地位？香港人可以有多自豪？

 

Growth investing，就是不執着估值

做價值投資的，有一部份人對growth investing (成長投資)嗤之以鼻，有另一部份人覺得做價值投資也要看growth，因為growth也是估值的一部份，例如DCF或它的變種。今天看了GuruFocus 一篇文章Overpaying for Quality，跟我以前發的兩篇文章成長股的迷思和放棄捕捉跌浪很有共鳴。文中引用了Rod Maciver敍述錯過了Berkshire Hathaway的文章:

“The approach that’s worked best in my experience is investing in high return on capital, low debt, growing companies that have the ability to reinvest earnings in the business and generate high returns on those reinvested earnings. The power of compound interest is so profound (mind-boggling really) that over time, returns in investments in those companies are enormous. The trick is finding companies that are compound interest machines. As in the case of Berkshire Hathaway, trying to invest in those companies based on an analysis of value is more likely to result in opportunities missed than it is make money.”

Rod提到他發現了最好的投資，就是投入可以不斷以高return on capital自我投入去成長的公司，因為這種公司在長遠來說會因複利的關係帶來很大的回報，而如果為這些公司去估值，又要margin of safety，就很容易導致missed opportunity。

Overpaying一文也引用了巴菲特1997年給股東的信中對價投的偏離，開始於棄對價格的執着:

“Generally speaking, I think if you’re sure enough about a business being wonderful, it’s more important to be certain about the business being a wonderful business than it is to be certain that the price is not 10% too high ... That’s a philosophy that I came slowly to. I originally was incredibly price conscious. We used to have prayer meetings before we would raise our bid an eighth. But that was a mistake. And in some cases, a huge mistake. I mean, we’ve missed things because of that.”

巴菲特認為，找到肯定的好公司，意指有高護城河高Return on Capital的公司，比用便宜的價格買更重要。

這兩篇節錄都沒有用到"growth investing"一詞，但是我覺得它們融合了費雪growth investing的精髓。有人以為growth investing是不看價格只看成長，但費雪不是傻子，縱使整本"common stocks and uncommon profits"沒有提及估值，難道他會在P/E 50的時候買motorola嗎？我找不到他確切買入motorola時的價格，但這篇forbes的文章說他持股21年獲得20倍的回報，就算你比他買貴一倍，只獲得10倍回報，也比到期S&P的7倍利害，這就是成長股的威力。

Growth investing，就是着重找有護城河，可以不斷自我投入增長的真正成長股，是一種不執着估值的投資方法。如果說價值投資是在於避免買太貴的公司，成長投資就是在於避免買增長太慢的公司，是我現時比較偏好的投資風格。